Pandémie - ISISS M. Casagrande (Pieve di Soligo)

ISISS M. Casagrande (Pieve di Soligo)
A disease is spreading. At every moment for each patient occurs that: a patient could infect another entity with a certain probability; a patient could heal with a certain probability; a patient could die with a certain probability. What could happen considering different probabilities? Is it better to vaccinate a part of the population or to isolate the population in small groups?
We attempted a statistical approach, developing a nxn cells matrix that represents the population, with the disease spreading by one person and infecting the still healthy adjacent cells. Our simulation uses the three probabilities as input parameters and returns the percentages of dead, healed and not even infected people, as well as the duration of the pandemic. We checked the behaviour of the simulation in relation to real diseases and looked for mathematical relations for the output data. We finally developed the algorithm to take into account the possibility of vaccination and to simulate people movement.